NZSEE are pleased to invite you to the 4th instalment in the NZSEE 2022 Webinar series. Matt Gerstenberger of GNS, Project Lead for the 2022 NSHM Update, will provide attendees a sneak peak “under the hood” of this world leading science achievement.
Matt Gerstenberger will cover technical aspects of the model’s development, including advancements in Ground Motion and Seismic rate modelling, as well, as, handy tips on how to interpret the hazard information though the multiple data sets it provides.
This is a great opportunity for anyone wanting a better understanding of the science behind this critical component of New Zealand’s hazard-scape toolkit.
Time 1pm, Monday 14th November 2022
Duration: 1 HR
Presenter: Matt Gerstenberger
To register for this webinar click here – https://www.engineeringnz.org/courses-events/event/nz-nshm-2022-a-look-under-the-hood/
NZ NSHM 2022 – A Look Under the Hood
Aotearoa New Zealand experiences around 250 felt earthquakes every year, with thousands more recorded. Understanding the likely strength of ground-shaking from future earthquakes is essential for a range of safety, security, resilience, financial, and economic purposes.
Since the last data update in 2010, hazard modelling science has greatly advanced, with many of these learnings taken from New Zealand’s recent significant seismic activity, particularly the Canterbury earthquake sequence and the Kaikoura earthquake.
The 2022 revision of the NSHM is world leading science that has been developed and reviewed by many national and international experts. It is complex science, with the model presenting data in the form of hazard curves, rupture sets, maps, and reports. One aspect of the results considered on its own cannot reflect the level of hazard.
In this webinar we will discuss how the NSHM was constructed, the science used to constrain the hazard and explore the many results of the model and how they can be understood. This will include a focus on key changes from past NSHMs. An important change has been the ability to use numerous component models to illuminate the range of forecast hazard. Other key changes include how geological and geophysical datasets are used to constrain crustal deformation rates; how we model complex ruptures on faults; the use of a target forecast period of 100 years that includes aspects of clustering and time-dependence; the development of models specifically for lower seismicity regions; development of new databases for constraining ground motion models; the use of numerous international ground motion models; and two new models ground motion models that have been developed for New Zealand. We will discuss how these changes have impacted the hazard forecasts.
The NSHM results include additional quantification of uncertainty that was not available in the past. We will discuss where this uncertainty comes from and how to understand what it means for the results. Finally we will discuss the tools and data that are now available online.
The webinar will be presented by Matt Gerstenberger a Principle Scientist and seismologist at GNS science who focuses on earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard modelling.
Matt is the Project Lead for the 2022 NZ NSHM Revision, a three-year project which will improve our understanding of risks to safety, security, and the economy from seismic events. Working in partnership with central and local government, engineers, universities and other Crown Research Institutes, and with input from international scientists and expert end users, the revision will lead to better management of, and responses to, natural hazard events, as well as influencing and improving infrastructure and building code legislation and requirements. This work will have ultimate benefits to the people of New Zealand.
Matt has been actively involved in many earthquake responses over the last 20 years. This includes working with GNS’ earthquake hazard and risk forecasting teams to provide forecasting data and probabilistic modelling to assist in the event response and recovery phases.
Matt obtained his PhD in Seismology from ETH-Zurich in 2003 and was a Mendenhall Postdoc at the United States Geological Survey. Before joining GNS, He has worked on a range of seismology projects around the world, creating better understanding and quantification of uncertainties, developing testable models, methods for propagating uncertainties and forecasting and hazard models. He developed an aftershock hazard forecasting tool, which has been extensively used by the US Geological Survey and featured prominently in New Zealand’s response to the Canterbury earthquakes.
Matt is a member of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering and an Associate Editor for the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.